WTI extends rally towards $90 as Middle East energy supply risks intensify

The Oil price rallies further to near $88.60 with no hopes of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough in sight.
Iran warns of war expansion if the US attacks Iranian infrastructure.
Investors await monetary policy announcements.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Thursday, is up over 3% at around $88.60 during the European trading session. The oil price extends its advance as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran on the horizon warrant the closure of critical passages for longer.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian army and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway of the Red Sea, by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have collectively impacted almost 27% of global energy supply.

Earlier in the day, Iran warned of Middle East war expansion if the US started attacking Iranian infrastructure. “Our defence doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

The message from Iran’s Araghchi is a response to a threat from US President Donald Trump that Washington’s military will destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time if the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, investors shift their focus to key monetary policy announcements from various central banks, starting with the European Central Bank (ECB) at 12:15 GMT. The ECB is highly anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged after a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the June policy meeting.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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