USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls await range breakout above 160.00 amid intervention fears

USD/JPY is seen consolidating its weekly gains as intervention fears offer some support to the JPY.
Economic concerns stemming from Middle East tensions and delayed BoJ rate hike bets cap the JPY.
US-Iran jitters and fading dovish Fed bets underpin the USD and spot prices amid a bullish setup.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Friday and oscillates in a range below the 160.00 psychological mark through the early European session amid mixed cues. Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks.

Speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency offer some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. That said, economic concerns stemming from intensifying Middle East tensions and bets for a delayed rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), bolstered by rather unimpressive National CPI print, favor the JPY bears. Furthermore, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, along with fading dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, underpins the US Dollar (USD) and the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair, barring a few knee-jerk reactions, has been oscillating in a familiar range since mid-March. The range bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent goodish rebound from a technically significant 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This, in turn, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain cushioned.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.79 sits in positive territory without yet signalling overbought conditions, suggesting underlying demand persists. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, hinting that upside momentum is constructive but not aggressive.

In the meantime, further weakness below the daily low, around the 159.60 area, could attract fresh buyers near the 159.00 mark. This is followed by the lower boundary of a multi-week-old range, around the 158.30 region, which, if broken decisively, could prompt some technical selling and pave the way for a fall to the 200-day EMA strong dynamic support at near 155.03, which underpins the broader bullish structure.

As long as buyers defend these levels on pullbacks, the technical backdrop suggests dips are likely to be short-lived unless daily closes start to develop below the long-term average. Bulls, however, might wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 160.00 mark before placing fresh bets and positioning for continuation of the prevailing uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.50%	0.13%	0.54%	0.14%	-0.07%	0.15%	0.74%
EUR	-0.50%		-0.36%	0.00%	-0.32%	-0.52%	-0.38%	0.25%
GBP	-0.13%	0.36%		0.00%	0.04%	-0.17%	-0.02%	0.60%
JPY	-0.54%	0.00%	0.00%		-0.40%	-0.54%	-0.41%	0.22%
CAD	-0.14%	0.32%	-0.04%	0.40%		-0.10%	-0.01%	0.59%
AUD	0.07%	0.52%	0.17%	0.54%	0.10%		0.22%	0.79%
NZD	-0.15%	0.38%	0.02%	0.41%	0.01%	-0.22%		0.59%
CHF	-0.74%	-0.25%	-0.60%	-0.22%	-0.59%	-0.79%	-0.59%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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