|

USD/JPY: A substantial turn lower probably requires a turn in the broad Dollar trend – ING

The stand-out funding currency, the Japanese Yen (JPY), is the worst performer at -6% year-to-date versus the US Dollar (USD). Economists at ING analyze USD/JPY outlook.

Under-valued, but weighed by the carry trade

We cannot see the low volatility/carry friendly environment turning anytime soon, suggesting the Yen stays weak. However, we now think that the JPY is close to 15% under-valued on our medium-term fair value models.

A substantial turn lower in the USD/JPY probably requires a turn in the broad Dollar trend, something we look for late in the second quarter. Should USD/JPY make it into the 155.00/160.00 area beforehand, we would see that as a good medium-term level for corporates to ratchet higher their USD receivables/JPY payables hedging plans.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD stays bid above 1.1700 as risk flows dominate

EUR/USD posts small gains above 1.1700 in early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar remains broadly subdued amid a risk-on market profile, underpinning the pair. 

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400

GBP/USD is clinging to recovery gains near 1.3400 in early Europe on Monday. The pair capitalizes on an upbeat market mood and a steady US Dollar as traders digest the recent

 monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the BoE.

Gold hits fresh record highs above $4,400 amid renewed geopolitical woes

Gold is hitting fresh record highs above $4,400 early Monday, helped by renewed geopolitical tensions. Israel-Iran conflict and US-Venezuela headlines drive investors toward the traditional store of value, Gold. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple eye breakout for fresh recovery

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are approaching key technical levels at the time of writing on Monday as the broader crypto market stabilizes. Market participants are closely watching whether BTC, ETH, and XRP can sustain breakouts and achieve decisive daily closes above nearby resistance levels, which could signal the start of a short-term recovery.

De-dollarisation by design: Gold’s partner in the new system

You don’t need another 2008 for the system to reset. You just need enough nations to stop settling trade in dollars. And that’s already happening. "If gold is the anchor, what actually moves value in a post-dollar world?” It’s a question most gold investors overlook. We think in terms of storage and preservation, but in the new rails being built, settlement speed matters just as much as soundness of money.

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.