USD/CHF Price Forecast: Buyers struggle to clear the 21-day SMA

USD/CHF maintains a mildly bullish bias, holding above the 50-day SMA.
Momentum remains mixed, with the RSI near neutral and the MACD below zero.
Buyers need to clear the 21-day SMA to strengthen the near-term recovery.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

USD/CHF trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Price action has stabilized above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following a sharp pullback from above 0.8200 in late July.

At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8113, extending gains for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, hovers around 99.80, holding above the 100-day SMA at 99.75.

USD/CHF holds a mildly positive technical tone above the 50-day SMA at 0.8067, though the 21-day SMA at 0.8112 keeps gains in check.

The 100-day SMA at 0.7968 supports the broader recovery structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 points to balanced momentum after cooling from earlier overbought levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting that upside momentum has weakened. However, the broader tone stays constructive as long as the pair holds above the 50-day SMA.

A sustained break above the 21-day SMA could open the door to 0.8150, followed by the 0.8200 psychological mark. On the downside, a move below the 50-day SMA would expose the 0.8000 psychological level. Further losses could bring the 100-day SMA at 0.7968 and the horizontal support at 0.7900 into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

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