USD/CAD Price Forecast: Intraday positive move stalls ahead of 1.4100 confluence hurdle

USD/CAD builds on the previous day’s solid recovery from an over one-month trough.
The fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and backs the case for further gains.
A move beyond the 1.4100 confluence is needed to reaffirm the constructive setup.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and recovers further from its lowest level since June 17, around the 1.4000 psychological mark touched the previous day. Spot prices advanced to a one-week high during the Asian session, though the intraday move up stalls ahead of the 1.4100 mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

The soft Canadian consumer inflation figures on Monday reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs at least once in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation. Apart from this, US President Donald Trump's new tariff of 50% on Canadian products undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This is seen as another factor supporting the currency pair. That said, elevated oil prices, bolstered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the highest level since April 2025 favors bullish traders. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56. Momentum indicators together hint at recovering upside pressure. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 1.4100 confluence before positioning for any further near-term appreciation.

The said handle comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, above which the USD/CAD pair could climb to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4126 and the 61.8% level at 1.4155. On the downside, support emerges at the 23.6% retracement near 1.4059, with a more substantial structural floor at the Fibonacci anchor around 1.4000, where a deeper pullback could pause if selling pressure resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Canadian Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.09%	0.09%	0.10%	0.40%	-0.59%	-0.50%	0.21%
EUR	-0.09%		0.01%	-0.06%	0.31%	-0.67%	-0.60%	0.11%
GBP	-0.09%	-0.01%		-0.07%	0.30%	-0.65%	-0.61%	0.15%
JPY	-0.10%	0.06%	0.07%		0.39%	-0.64%	-0.65%	0.22%
CAD	-0.40%	-0.31%	-0.30%	-0.39%		-0.94%	-1.03%	-0.15%
AUD	0.59%	0.67%	0.65%	0.64%	0.94%		0.07%	0.84%
NZD	0.50%	0.60%	0.61%	0.65%	1.03%	-0.07%		0.76%
CHF	-0.21%	-0.11%	-0.15%	-0.22%	0.15%	-0.84%	-0.76%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD clings to small gains near 1.3450 after UK jobs data

GBP/USD trades in positive territory at around 1.3450 in the European session on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% in the three months to May, compared with expectations of 5%, but failed to provide any impetus to the British Pound's renewed uptick. Traders stay cautious amid US-Iran uncertainty and the UK political transition.

EUR/USD keeps range above 1.1400 after German ZEW

EUR/USD is keeping its range above 1.1400 in Tuesday's European session, as the US Dollar (USD) retreats following Monday's rebound. Nevertheless, the uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict limits the pair's upside. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) pays little heed to the strong German sentiment data, as traders await Thursday's European Central Bank policy announcements, which could drive the Euro's near-term valuation.

Gold extends recovery toward $4,100

Gold gains traction following Monday's choppy action and advances toward $4,100 on Tuesday. However, the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook could make it difficult for the precious metal to gather bullish momentum in the near term.

Bitcoin extends advance as ETF inflows, Iran war mediators' proposal lift risk mood

Bitcoin extends its gains, trading above $65,800 after closing above the key technical hurdle the previous day. The bullish price action is further supported by the return of institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds continuing their inflows on Monday. In addition, the renewed hopes for peace between the US and Iran have lifted risk sentiment, providing an additional tailwind for the Crypto King.

Buy the dip on the Dow Jones and S&P? Forex Trading Gold descending triangle

Trading during a war, a pandemic, during trade disputes, and other geopolitical events, especially when some major players are sociopathic, can be quite challenging. The Iran war is no exception. The Iran war is no exception.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.