USD/CAD: Bearish setup as valuation gap narrows – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is making modest gains versus a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lags core majors and weakens on crosses. They estimate USD/CAD equilibrium at 1.3527, with undervaluation correcting mainly via Dollar softness. Seasonality is strongly bearish for USD/CAD in April, while recent political developments are seen as marginal for the currency outlook.

Technical break reinforces April seasonals

"The CAD is making a little headway against a generally softer USD this morning but gains are lagging versus the core majors, leaving the CAD slipping a little on the key crosses."

"The CAD’s undervaluation (equilibrium is estimated at 1.3527 currently) is slowly correcting but the process may be slow and contingent (mostly) on the USD softening rather than the CAD strengthening."

"USD/CAD seasonality is strongly bearish in April, however."

"Bearish—USD/CAD technicals lean bearish after USD losses broke trend support off the early March low last week and crashed through important support (200-day MA and the 38.2% retracement of the March rally) around 1.38 yesterday."

"Losses are nearing the 50% retracement of the March jump in the USD (1.3745) but strengthening short-term trend momentum suggests a slide to the upper 1.36s (1.3690 is the 61.8% retracement) is an obvious risk."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.