US Dollar Index: Jobs setback limits downside – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that softer US jobs data has weakened the Dollar but does not expect this alone to extend USD losses. He argues the report curbs hopes for two Federal Reserve hikes but is not weak enough for a major dovish repricing. ING expects DXY to stabilise in a 100.0-101.5 range in coming weeks, with thin US holiday liquidity raising intervention risks.

ING sees DXY stabilising near term

"Softer US jobs data has weakened the dollar, but we do not see this as sufficient to extend USD losses on its own. We look for near-term stabilisation in DXY. Thin liquidity around the US holiday today and Monday increases the risk of JPY intervention, with an initial round that may already have occurred yesterday morning."

"Overall, the report makes it harder for markets to rebuild expectations of two Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, it is not weak enough on its own to trigger significant dovish repricing."

"Despite yesterday’s front-end correction, more than 25bp remains priced into the December contract, and markets can still hold on to expectations of at least one hike into the 14 July CPI release."

"While the data supports our bearish USD view for the second half of the year, we do not see the greenback entering a sustained downtrend yet. Instead, DXY may stabilise in the 100.0-101.5 range over the coming weeks."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD: Gains remains capped below 1.3400

GBP/USD trades in positive territory, with the upside capped below 1.3400 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar extends weakness following a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which fades Fed rate hike expectations.

EUR/USD stays firm around 1.1450 amid weaker US Dollar

EUR/USD remains on the front foot at around 1.1450 in European trading on Friday. The pair seems poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve rate hike bets keep the US Dollar under pressure.

Gold stays on track to snap four-week losing streak amid fading Fed hike bets, weak USD

Gold retains its bullish bias for the third straight day and traders near a one-and-a-half-week high during the first half of the European session. The precious metal seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks, with bulls still awaiting a move beyond the $4,200 mark before positioning for an extension of this week's recovery from the lowest level since November 2025.

Hyperliquid gears up for a higher leg as bullish momentum resurfaces

Hyperliquid (HYPE) extends gains above $66 maintaining a long-term upward trend supported by its rising 50-day EMA around $60. Retail demand for HYPE rises in the near term, with Open Interest up around 5% over 24 hours as funding rates hold above zero, while institutional demand remains muted so far this week.

Economics week ahead

Market attention turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting made clear that policymakers are split on whether rate hikes are warranted, but with forward guidance getting tamped down under Chair Warsh, the Fed's reaction function remains uncertain in terms of what exactly would build broader support for more restrictive policy.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.