US: CPI inflation pulse and Fed path – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities economists expect US inflation data to firm in April, with core Consumer Price Index (CPI) boosted by shelter and airfare components and headline CPI lifted by higher Oil and food prices. They see core CPI peaking in Q2 2026 before gradual disinflation resumes, shaping expectations for the Dollar and US yields.

Core and headline CPI set to firm

"With risks of a labor market downturn subsiding, attention will continue to shift towards the Fed's inflation mandate — which will make it difficult for incoming Chair Warsh to achieve cuts."

"April CPI this week will again reflect the oil shock, with some core components showing second round effects."

"We look for core CPI to rise to 0.38% m/m (2.8% y/y), largely owing to the rebound in rent/OER prices after the government shutdown kept the segment atypically subdued in October."

"We expect headline CPI to post a firmer 0.56% m/m (3.7% y/y) gain owing to strong gasoline prices along with a rebound in food after a flat March."

"Higher energy prices along with still-high tariffs should lead to a boost in consumer prices in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin at $60,000, Ethereum at $1,500, and XRP at $1 face a make-or-break test

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are trading in the red on Friday after three consecutive days of losses, testing their respective make-or-break support levels.

Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.