In the view of the analysts at Nomura, the UK retail sales numbers are expected to decline in the month of March, tracking the downbeat readings the BRC reported earlier this month.
“There is more than the usual uncertainty associated with the March sales print.
On the positive side, the BRC reported a rise in sales growth during the month. However, much of that could be due to the early timing of Easter (which is not adjusted for by the BRC, but is by the ONS).
The CBI reported the sales balance was far more downbeat (it turned negative in March) and we expect the dominant factor in the official data will be the negative effect on footfall of the cold weather and snow. As a result, we forecast a decline in official sales in March.”
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