The Pound is still vulnerable to further near-term weakness – MUFG

The BoE delivered a surprise by leaving their policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at the latest MPC meeting. The BoE’s policy update has reinforced the recent correction lower for the Pound. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze GBP outlook.

BoE stands pat as focus shifting to higher rates for longer

Slim majority (5 vs. 4) of MPC members voted to leave policy rate unchanged. Decision was finely balanced but case for another hike was not as compelling. Updated guidance signals shift towards keeping rates high for longer. Modest pick-up planned for pace of QT in year ahead. 

While the UK rate market has already moved a long way now to price out further BoE hikes, the Pound is still vulnerable to further near-term weakness with evidence building that the UK economy is responding more to tighter monetary policy.