Swiss Franc weakens against US Dollar with US Inflation in focus

The Swiss Franc trades lower against the US Dollar at around 0.8125 ahead of the US CPI data for July.
Financial markets expect US inflation to have grown at a moderate pace.
The US CPI data is expected to have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is down against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Wednesday. As of writing, USD/CHF trades 0.17% higher at around 0.8125. The Swiss Franc pair trades higher as the US Dollar edges up ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is scheduled to be published at 12:30 GMT.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.88.

Investors will closely track the US inflation data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

US CPI in focus as softer core print could weigh on the Dollar

Analysts at ING note that consensus is “looking for a reasonably subdued set of numbers: 0.1% month-on-month for headline and 0.2% for core.” Such a profile would see the year-on-year rates “drop to 3.4% and 2.5% respectively – inching closer to the Fed's 2% inflation target.” ING highlights that “lower gasoline prices, broadening signs of rental deflation and soft wages” are expected to drive the softer readings.

Given that “the market looks to be expecting a softer price story today,” ING argues that investors would “probably need to see a 0.1% month-on-month read on core inflation – which some think is possible” to materially shift the policy narrative. In their view, “a soft number should drag market pricing of a September Fed rate hike away from a 50% probability in favour of no change,” while “a bullish steepening of the yield curve should see the Dollar soften – particularly against the procyclical currencies.”

This week, investors will also focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be released on Thursday.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8127. The pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as it advances above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.8104, keeping price supported after recovering from last week’s dip.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 54.29 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting steady upside pressure rather than an overextended move.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.8104, where buyers have recently defended the pullback, and a break below this floor would hint at a deeper corrective phase. With no nearby technical resistances flagged by the current dataset, the pair appears free to probe higher levels, leaving momentum and broader market cues to guide whether the bullish tone can extend further.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD hangs close to 1.3500, awaits fresh impetus from US CPI

GBP/USD keeps its range around 1.3500 in Wednesday's European trading. The pair continues to trade with caution as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground ahead of a crucial US consumer inflation report. Investors are watching this upcoming reading closely, as it is expected to play a major role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and the USD valuation.

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1550 ahead of US CPI

EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and holds steady around 1.1550 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, maintaining a familiar range held over the past week or so. Traders keenly await the release of the key US inflation data and further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before placing fresh directional bets.

Gold retakes $4,400, eyes two-month high as traders look to US CPI for Fed hike cues

Gold attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and climbs back above the $4,400 mark, closer to its highest level since June 5, which was touched the previous day. Traders now look to the US Consumer Price Index report for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's future policy path amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices.

Zcash below $500 puts bulls under pressure, 100-day EMA in focus

Zcash price trades below $500 at press time on Wednesday, holding steady after two consecutive days of losses. Retail demand for the privacy coin is mixed as the broader market awaits the release of US Consumer Price Index data for July later in the day.

US CPI data set to show softer inflation in July as markets reassess Fed rate hike bets

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the July Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a small decline in consumer inflation and core inflation. The monthly CPI is forecast to rise by 0.1%, following the 0.4% decrease recorded in June, while the annual reading is seen retreating to 3.4% from 3.5% reported in the previous month.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.