|

SPX500USD price outlook: S&P 500 index navigating between arc levels. Potential continuation toward 7,790

Overview

Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, the S&P 500 Index is trading between the 0.618 Arc and 0.786 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price has cleared the 0.618 Arc boundary and is progressing toward the 0.786 Arc, suggesting continued movement toward the next Arc boundary.

Metric

Reading

Market Bias

Bullish

Preferred Scenario

Potential Continuation / Cycle-to-Cycle Expansion

Primary Target Zone

7,790

Scenario Invalidation

Sustained close back below 7,650

Current Arc Level

In Transit Between Arcs (0.618 Arc to 0.786 Arc)

Cycle Status

Mid-Cycle Migration Phase

Arc Integrity

Neutral

Market outlook

Price is trading between the 0.618 Arc and the 0.786 Arc, indicating that the market is progressing through the current Arc Cycle toward the next Arc boundary. If momentum continues, the preferred scenario is continued movement toward the Target Arc at 7,790 (0.786 Arc).

Conversely, a sustained 1h close back below 7,650 (0.618 Arc) would invalidate the continuation scenario and could shift the outlook toward the Previous Arc Cycle.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

More from Mohamad Gharib
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.