Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD approaches $66.00 favoured by a softer US Dollar
- XAG/USD trades near $66.00 on Monday after bouncing from $63.50 lows on Friday.
- Weak US data curbed hopes of a September Fed rate hike and weighed on the US Dollar last week.
- The key resistance area for Silver bulls is around $67.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on a strong footing on Monday, reaching levels above $65.80 at the European session opening times, after bouncing from the $63.50 area on Friday. Precious metals are being boosted by US Dollar (USD) weakness, as recent US macroeconomic data has curbed hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
US data released on Friday endorsed this view, as July's Retail Sales dropped 0.6% against market expectations of a 0.1% gain, following a 0.2% increase in June. These figures follow relatively soft producer and consumer price figures released earlier in the week and another disappointment in Nonfarm Payrolls in the previous week. Against this background, investors have dialed back bets of a Fed hike in September to 30%, from above 50% one week ago, according to data by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the $67.00 area
XAG/USD reached the target of a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern at the $67.00 area last week, and has been consolidating ever since, with bearish attempts limited above previous highs, at $63.30. The pair, thus, holds a constructive near-term pattern and momentum indicators in the daily chart remain within bullish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering above 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line maintains a firm positive reading near 0.81, highlighting persistent upside pressure.
Bulls remain capped below the $66.00 area on Monday, which is closing the path towards the June 22 high, at $67.17. Further up, there is a heavier supply zone defined by the June 17 high, at $71.56, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $71.70.
On the downside, the mentioned $63.30 area is expected to challenge bears, ahead of the August 6 and 7 lows, around $62.00 and the late July lows, in the mid-range of the $56.00s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
