Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD weakens to $66.50, bears retain control below 100-day SMA
- Silver attracts fresh sellers on Tuesday and stalls the overnight solid rebound from the $61.00 mark.
- The broader technical setup favors the XAG/USD bears and backs the case for a further depreciation.
- A sustained strength back above the 100-day SMA is needed to negate the near-term negative bias.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's solid recovery move from the $61.00 mark, or its lowest level since December 12, and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal dives back closer to mid-$66.00s in the last hour and remains vulnerable to prolong a two-week-old downtrend.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and the daily close below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since April 2025 were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bears. This break also places the commodity back into a downside phase within a broader uptrend context, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns negative and the line holds below its signal with an expanding negative histogram, signaling strengthening selling pressure.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 33 stays below the 50 midline and leans toward oversold territory, reinforcing the downside momentum rather than showing clear exhaustion. Meanwhile, the current low near $67.00 acts as initial support, and a sustained break below this level would expose $63.00 as the next support area, followed by $60.00, where dip-buying could attempt to stabilize the broader bullish structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the recent breakdown zone near $73.00, aligned with the 100-day SMA around $74.00, where any rebound would face initial selling interest. A daily close above that area would open the way toward $80.00 as the next resistance before the $85.00 region caps the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
