Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tests 23.6% Fibo. near $75.75 amid mixed setup
- Silver regains some positive traction, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old range.
- The technical setup warrants caution for bullish traders before positioning for further gains.
- A move beyond the $78.25-$78.45 confluence is needed to negate the negative outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $75.70-$75.75 zone, up over 1% for the day. The white metal, however, remains confined in a multi-day-old range, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the May monthly peak. Moreover, the commodity holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support breakpoint, which now coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level. This keeps a bearish near-term bias intact, making it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the said confluence before positioning for any further appreciating move.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 suggests only modest, directionless momentum. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hovering slightly positive and hints at a fragile attempt to stabilize within a broader capped structure. This, in turn, suggests that the 100-period SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. confluence, around the $78.25-$78.45 area, might continue to act as a strong barrier for the XAG/USD pair.
A sustained strength beyond, however, would open the way toward further hurdles at the 50.0% level at $80.50 and deeper Fibo. resistances at $82.56 and $85.48 before the cycle high zone near $89.20. On the downside, structural support is only clearly defined at the Fibo. anchor around $71.81, where buyers could attempt to build a more solid base if the current consolidation resolves lower.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
