Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD taps $77.00; looks to build on strength above 200-EMA on H4
- Silver attracts some follow-through buyers and tests the 200-period EMA pivotal hurdle on H4.
- The broader technical setup backs the case for an eventual break to the upside and further gains.
- Any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity near the 38.2% Fibo. retracement.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-$72.00s and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal climbs to the $76.80 region in the last hour, with bulls looking to build on an intraday breakout momentum above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.
The XAG/USD is also trading comfortably above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in March, reinforcing the underlying constructive bullish outlook. Adding to this, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum is recovering rather than fading.
A convincing breakout through the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart might have set the stage for additional gains towards the 50% retracement at $78.69 en route to the monthly swing high near $81.13. A sustained move beyond would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at $82.88, with further barriers then seen at $88.85 and the cycle high area near the $96.45 area.
On the downside, immediate strong support is provided by 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at $74.50, while deeper pullbacks would likely look to 23.6% Fibo. level at $69.31 and sub-$67.00 levels as more distant structural floors.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
