Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles to extend upside above $66.25, NFP data awaited
- Silver price faces resistance near $66.25 in the countdown to the US NFP data.
- The Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
- Higher oil prices could pressurize the Silver price.
Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend Wednesday’s strong recovery move above $66.25 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal could remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.
US jobs rebound seen keeping Fed on hold despite hawkish risks
According to TD Securities, August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to “rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k,” with the firm cautioning that “risks to our payrolls forecasts appear hawkish, and we would not rule out an outsized positive surprise.” The unemployment rate is projected to have “gone sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks,” suggesting only limited change in headline labour market conditions.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP report as it is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Analysts at TD say that “a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes,” as they “continue to expect that inflation data can print modestly, allowing the Fed to keep rates on hold for now.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a two-in-three chance that the Fed will increase interest rates in the September policy meeting.
Elsewhere, higher oil prices due to restricted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, could fizzle out the recovery move in the Silver price.
Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that increases fears of interest rate hikes from central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.00. The pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.51, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price extends its recovery from the mid-$50s area.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.04 sits in neutral territory but leans higher, which suggests buyers still have the upper hand without the market being overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $65.51, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. Looking up, the August high near $71 is expected to remain a key barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
