Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $64, US private labor data awaited
- Silver price claws back its early losses and recovers to near $64.
- The Fed is anticipated to hike interest rates this month.
- Fed Governor Barr warns of interest rate hikes if inflation remains high.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and rebounds to near $64.00 till the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as surging United States (US) Treasury yields due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets are hurting non-yielding assets.
During the day, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
Hawkish Fed bets accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Analysts at MUFG highlight that, while Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole on Friday, “the gist of his speech was similar to his previous speeches.” They note that he once again “talked tough on inflation” and underscored that if inflation does not decline at “sufficient speed” then the Fed still has “work to do,” reinforcing the perception that the policy bias remains tilted toward further tightening if disinflation stalls.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to hike interest rates if price pressures don’t moderate soon. Barr also warned, “Inflation remains too high.”
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. According to estimates, the US private sector created 48K fresh jobs, slightly higher than 44K in July.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.05. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.33, keeping the near-term tone mildly bearish as the failed attempt to sustain above recent highs leaves price capped by this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.72 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $65.33, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way back toward the recent peak zone. Looking up, the Silver price could advance further to the August high at $71.12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
