Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds position near $32.00 due to safe-have flows
- Silver price appreciates due to safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Risk aversion strengthens due to the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the militant leader of Hamas.
- Demand for the non-yielding Silver increases due to the prevailing likelihood of interest rate reductions by major central banks.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day, hovering around $32.00 per troy ounce during the Asian trading session on Friday. The price of the grey metal receives support from safe-haven flows amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Israel's military and the Shin Bet security service confirmed on Thursday that Yahya Sinwar, the Gaza Strip Chief of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, was killed by Israeli forces during an operation in southern Gaza on Wednesday. Sinwar's death has raised concerns among the families of Israeli hostages taken to Gaza by Hamas, who fear that the killing of the militant leader might increase the risk to their loved ones, according to Reuters.
The non-yielding assets like Silver gains demand due to the prevailing sentiment of interest rate reductions by major central banks. US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another cut in December.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Main Refinancing Operations Rate by 25 basis points to 3.4%. Recent inflation data also indicates that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider potential rate cuts next month.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
