Pound Sterling moves little as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar

GBP/USD stays flat as US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions.
Trump said the Iran port blockade will continue, raising concerns the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed.
The Bank of England kept its main Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD steadies after registering nearly 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3610 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair moves little as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground on safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that US President Donald Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports, amid concerns that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may not reopen in the near term. Trump also criticized congressional efforts aimed at restricting his war powers, including a recent Senate proposal that was rejected earlier in the day.

On the US data front, figures released on Thursday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.7%. The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge excluding volatile food and energy components, advanced 3.2% YoY, following a 3% rise in February and matching analysts’ forecasts.

Meanwhile, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2026, falling short of the 2.3% market expectation but improving from the previous 0.5% growth.

The Bank of England (BoE) decided on Thursday to keep its main Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in an 8-1 decision, with Chief Economist Huw Pill as the sole dissenter advocating for a 25 basis-point increase.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized second-round inflation risks during the press conference, signaling that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stands ready to act pre-emptively if energy-driven price pressures begin to feed through into wages.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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