Oil prices have jumped up by around 20% since the beginning of the year. Economists at Capital Economics still expect the release of ‘pent-up’ demand at a time of constrained global supply to deepen the market deficit and increase oil prices in the near-future, but recent developments – particularly on the supply side – have convinced them to revise down oil mid-year price forecasts.
Higher OPEC+ production to limit oil price gains
“OPEC+ production now looks set to rise faster than we had anticipated in the coming months, although it will remain below pre-virus levels. OPEC+ announced that output quotas would increase by 350,000 bpd in May and June, and by 440,000 bpd in July. Beyond July, we think that high prevailing prices will incentivise further rises in OPEC+ production.”
“It seems likely that Iran’s production (which is not subject to OPEC+ production quotas) will grow over the coming months too. The 25-year cooperation agreement between Iran and China, officially signed at the end of March, provides Iran with a large guaranteed market for its oil. What’s more, if the 2015 nuclear accord is revived by the US and other world powers, it would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted and for production to return to pre-sanction levels.”
“We expect global oil demand to be markedly higher this year compared to last year. We are revising up our forecast of US consumption as the rapid easing of lockdowns and fiscal stimulus are likely to boost transport activity. However, in the near-term, strong US demand growth will be partly offset at the global level by our downward revision to consumption in the EU and parts of the developing world, owing to the re-imposition of virus-related travel restrictions.”
“We still expect oil prices (Brent) to peak at $75 per barrel in Q3 ($80 previously) on the back of a rebound in global demand. However, steady increases in OPEC+ production will start to clear the market deficit and we still expect prices to fall to $70 by end-2021 and $60 by end-2022.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD jumps above 0.6500 after hot Australian CPI data
AUD/USD extended gains and recaptured 0.6500 in Asian trading, following the release of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data. The Australian CPI rose 1% in QoQ in Q1 against 0.8% forecast, providing extra legs to the Australian Dollar upside.
USD/JPY hangs near 34-year high at 154.88 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is sitting at a multi-decade high of 154.88 reached on Tuesday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair as Japan's FX intervention risks loom. Broad US Dollar weakness also caps the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold price cautious despite weaker US Dollar and falling US yields
Gold retreats modestly after failing to sustain gains despite fall in US Treasury yields, weaker US Dollar. XAU/USD struggles to capitalize following release of weaker-than-expected S&P Global PMIs, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts.
Crypto community reacts as BRICS considers launching stablecoin for international trade settlement
BRICS is intensifying efforts to reduce its reliance on the US dollar after plans for its stablecoin effort surfaced online on Tuesday. Most people expect the stablecoin to be backed by gold, considering BRICS nations have been accumulating large holdings of the commodity.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Fed might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.