NZD/USD: Unlikely to break above 0.6355 – UOB Group

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could continue to rise but is unlikely to break above 0.6355. In the longer run, to continue to advance, NZD must break clearly above 0.6355, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

To advance, NZD must break above 0.6355

24-HOUR VIEW: “After NZD fell sharply on Wednesday, we indicated yesterday that it ‘could continue to decline, but it is unlikely to challenge the major support at 0.6200.’ Our view was incorrect, as NZD rose instead, reaching a high of 0.6332. While NZD could continue to rise, lackluster momentum suggests it is unlikely to break above 0.6355 (there is another resistance at 0.6340). Support is at 0.6300, followed by 0.6275.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned neutral in NZD yesterday (26 Sep, 0.6260), indicating that it ‘is likely to trade between 0.6200 and 0.6340.’ We did not expect NZD to rise and approach 0.6340 as quickly (high has been 0.6332). Despite the advance, upward momentum has not increased much. To continue to advance, NZD must break clearly above 0.6355. The probability of NZD breaking clearly above 0.6355 seems low for now, but it will remain intact as long as 0.6240 is not breached in the next few days.”