NZD/USD: the potential of a near-term profit-taking bounce on RBNZ - ANZ

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at ANZ noted that this morning we have the RBNZ OCR decision, with no change in the OCR is universally expected.

Key Quotes:

"With no accompanying forecasts or Monetary Policy Statement, much attention will be paid to the one-page statement released alongside the decision. Since the May MPS, developments have been negative on balance, and we expect that a similar message will be retained: the RBNZ will remain cautious until inflation shows consistent signs of life."

"We expect a reiteration of the neutral message that the next move in interest rates could be either up or down, depending on data flow. But while the message is likely to be similar, the question is whether the wording of the statement will change materially."

"It is possible that the statement will be regularly refreshed under the new Governor to avoid it becoming formulaic, although this Morning Focus author wonders if they might quickly run out of new ways to say “interest rates will be low for some time yet."

NZD/USD outlook

"A stronger USD, together with yesterday’s poor Business Outlook survey, has seen the NZD break key downside support levels. One has to wonder about market positioning here, leaving the potential of a near-term profit-taking bounce. However, the medium-term picture looks to be for more weakness. Today it is obviously about the RBNZ."

"Support 0.6740 Resistance 0.6850."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.