NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi fails to hold onto gains

NZD/USD retreats to 0.5930 after reversing intraday gains as the US Dollar recovers late in the American session.
Oil prices pullback as market expects end to war with Iran.
Markets await US Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and Business NZ PMI from New Zealand on Thursday.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5930 price region, reversing its intraday gains late in the American session. At the start of the day, the US Dollar (USD) lost momentum after United States (US) President Donald Trump suggested late Monday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could end soon.

Oil prices surged sharply since the US and Israel launched a war with Iran amid concerns over Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Oil retreated after Trump’s remarks and reports that G7 countries are considering a coordinated release of strategic Oil reserves if prices rebound higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $85 a barrel, easing from a three-year peak near $120 posted on Monday. The Iran war is still ongoing, and the market sentiment could take a turn for the worse, reviving USD strength.

Investors’ focus now shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Wednesday and the upcoming New Zealand Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5929. The near-term bias is neutral as price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) but below the 100-period SMA. Both are flattening, although the 20-period SMA has turned slightly higher just beneath spot. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 52, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum that aligns with a modest recovery stance.

Immediate support is located at 0.5925, the daily low, followed by 0.5907, Monday's low. A sustained hold above these levels would keep buyers in control and leave scope for a grind higher toward initial resistance at 0.5965, the weekly top. A break above 0.5965 would open the door to a more decisive recovery phase, while a drop below 0.5907 would negate the nascent bullish bias and re-expose the broader downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.