Fed’s Musalem says policy still accommodative as demand fuels inflation
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem crossed the wires on Tuesday, saying that central bankers needn’t make promises but should tell the public how and why the central bank makes policy decisions.
Musalem added that the delegated power over interest rates also obligates the Fed to explain “how and why that power is used.”
Recently, he said that the economy is very strong, that “about half of inflation now is from persistent demand pressure,” and that policy “remains somewhat accommodative even after the last rate hike.”
Key highlights:
Right now the AI CAPEX boom is resulting in demand pressure, with productivity and "Supply relief" not yet apparent
The economy is very strong now, but predicated on continued growth
About half of inflation now is from persistent demand pressure
Inflation expectations remain consistent with 2% inflation over the long run
The Fed's SEP could be improved by anonymously connecting rate "dots" with economic projections
Monetary policy remains somewhat accommodative even after the last rate hike.
Clear framework helps policy transmission
Fed should communicate how it turns info into policy
Framework doesn't promise a specific interest rate path
if the public understands the framework, private expectations line up with the Fed's intentions, improving trade-offs between inflation and employment
Central banks should also avoid 'exiting the conversation altogether', would pose risks in terms of inflation
A central bank that keeps its framework to itself forces market participants to guess at its reaction, rather than focus on data
Central bankers needn't make promises, but should tell the public how and why the central bank makes policy decisions
A predictable, explained framework, is part of what makes a central bank democratically legitimate.
Delegated power over interest rates also obligates the Fed to explain 'how and why that power is used
If the public understands the framework, private expectations line up with the fed's intentions, improves trade-offs between inflation and employment
The 'Hall of Mirrors' occurs when the Fed announces a forecast, not a framework.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.09% | -0.37% | -0.27% | 0.19% | 0.15% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | 0.09% | -0.29% | -0.15% | 0.27% | 0.24% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.29% | 0.14% | 0.56% | 0.54% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.15% | -0.14% | 0.42% | 0.40% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.19% | -0.27% | -0.56% | -0.42% | -0.03% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.45% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.54% | -0.40% | 0.03% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | 0.09% | 0.00% | -0.30% | -0.16% | 0.27% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
