Japanese Yen softens on Middle East tensions, Japan signals scope for more intervention

USD/JPY drifts higher to near 157.15 in Monday’s early European session.
Trump rejected the new Iran peace offer, calling it “totally unacceptable.”
Japan’s Mimura said continued intervention was possible.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair gains ground to around 157.15 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) as ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict boost safe-haven flows.

Middle East tensions have risen after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, a move that pushed oil prices higher and weighed on the Cable. Tasnim news agency said Tehran's proposal included an immediate end to the war on all fronts, a halt to a US naval blockade and guarantees of no further attacks on Iran.

Nonetheless, persistent intervention threats from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the pair. Japanese officials reportedly intervened in the currency market again during the Golden Week. Markets estimated the cost of these additional moves at approximately ¥4 trillion to ¥5 trillion ($32 billion).

Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura said last week that continued intervention was possible, adding that International Monetary Fund (IMF) rules don’t limit how often intervention can be conducted.

"Intervention risk and strong official warnings made it unattractive to chase weakness near 160,” said Stefan Rittner, senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, who is neutral on dollar-yen. Still, "persistent structural headwinds limit the case for a sustained yen rebound despite the cheap valuation and further intervention risk should rise again if dollar-yen approaches prior levels,” Rittner added.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP nears critical $1.00 support

Ripple (XRP) remains pressured on Friday, trading around $1.03 at the time of writing. The token appears to hold this current level as support but lacks a catalyst to sustain a knee-jerk rebound toward the next key resistance at $1.10.

Is Gold about to enter its biggest bull run since 2020?

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history. A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.