Japanese Yen drops to two-week low vs USD as bears shrug off intervention fears

USD/JPY trades with a positive bias for the fifth straight day amid a sustained USD buying interest.
The incoming US macro data lifts bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 and underpins the buck.
Geopolitical uncertainties and the US-China optimism also benefit the USD and support the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair touches a two-week high during the Asian session on Friday and looks to extend the weekly uptrend amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains and currently trade just below the 158.50 level, up slightly for the fifth consecutive day.

Traders ramped up their bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 following the release of hotter-than-expected US inflation figures earlier this week. Adding to this, US Retail Sales expanded for the third straight month in April, reflecting a robust consumer spending and reaffirming hawkish Fed expectations. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, lifts the USD to a fresh monthly peak and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Peace talks between the US and Iran remain in limbo amid broader disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, US-China relations have stabilized following a high-level summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) formally welcomed the constructive dialogue, noting that lowering trade tensions and reducing economic uncertainty are highly beneficial for global financial stability.

Meanwhile, data released earlier today showed that Japan's wholesale inflation—Producer Price Index (PPI) —surged 4.9% year-over-year in April amid rising oil and import costs due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This adds to worries about economic risks stemming from the Iran tensions and weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY), further lending support to the USD/JPY pair. However, speculations that authorities will step in to prop up the JPY cap the upside for the currency pair.

Economic Indicator

Producer Price Index (YoY)

The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

GBP/USD climbs to four-day highs near 1.3250

GBP/USD rapidly reverses Friday’s small losses and challenges the 1.3250 level, or four-day tops, at the beginning of the week. Cable’s upside comes on the back of further loss of momentum in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD extends the advance past 1.1400

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, trading above 1.1400 on Monday as broad-based US Dollar weakness lends support to the pair. In the meantime, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding efforts to end the US-Iran conflict, while attention gradually shifts to the ECB's annual forum and the US NFP data.

Gold falters just ahead of $4,100

Gold remains under modest bearish pressure just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal struggles to extend its recent gains as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revives inflation concerns and bolsters Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.