Japanese Yen drops to two-week low vs USD as bears shrug off intervention fears

USD/JPY trades with a positive bias for the fifth straight day amid a sustained USD buying interest.
The incoming US macro data lifts bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 and underpins the buck.
Geopolitical uncertainties and the US-China optimism also benefit the USD and support the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair touches a two-week high during the Asian session on Friday and looks to extend the weekly uptrend amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains and currently trade just below the 158.50 level, up slightly for the fifth consecutive day.

Traders ramped up their bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 following the release of hotter-than-expected US inflation figures earlier this week. Adding to this, US Retail Sales expanded for the third straight month in April, reflecting a robust consumer spending and reaffirming hawkish Fed expectations. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, lifts the USD to a fresh monthly peak and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Peace talks between the US and Iran remain in limbo amid broader disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, US-China relations have stabilized following a high-level summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) formally welcomed the constructive dialogue, noting that lowering trade tensions and reducing economic uncertainty are highly beneficial for global financial stability.

Meanwhile, data released earlier today showed that Japan's wholesale inflation—Producer Price Index (PPI) —surged 4.9% year-over-year in April amid rising oil and import costs due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This adds to worries about economic risks stemming from the Iran tensions and weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY), further lending support to the USD/JPY pair. However, speculations that authorities will step in to prop up the JPY cap the upside for the currency pair.

Economic Indicator

Producer Price Index (YoY)

The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

GBP/USD bounces off four-day lows, still below 1.3500

GBP/USD sticks to the bearish tone on Thursday, coming down to the 1.3480 region in the latter part of the NA session. In the meantime, Cable’s weakness comes as investors continue to assess mixed UK data, poor US results, and the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

EUR/USD looks apathetic around 1.1530

EUR/USD reverses Wednesday’s downtick and trades with modest gains in the 1.1530 region following the end of the NA session on Thursday. The pair’s tepid advance comes on the back of the absence of clear direction in the US Dollar despite tensions from the Middle East appear far from alleviated. Later on Friday, investors are expected to monitor the the releases of another revision of GDP figures in the Euroland, US Retail Sales and the preliminary U-Mich gauge.

Gold loses the grip, recedes toward $4,350

Gold extends its intraday pullback on Thursday, retesting the $4,350 zone per troy ounce, or three-day troughs. Meanwhile, the yellow metal continues to monitor developments from the Middle East as well as bets surrounding the potential Fed’s rate path.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Fidelity plans to add staking to ETH ETF amid yield debate

Asset manager Fidelity has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to permit staking in its Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH), which holds over $898 million in net assets.

Week ahead – Summer lull could be tested by geopolitics and central bank expectations

US dollar stabilizes as September Fed hike bets remain subdued. Market volatility stays low, but thin liquidity could amplify movements. Key UK data could challenge pound strength; euro craves bullish catalysts.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.