Japanese Yen: BoJ path and JGB selloff – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage notes Japanese 20-year yields have climbed to 1997 highs as JGBs track U.S. moves, with markets watching USD/JPY holding below 158. A record current account surplus and supportive comments from U.S. officials reinforce expectations for a BoJ rate hike in June. The OECD projects overnight rates reaching 2% by end-2027, anchoring a gradual tightening path.

Higher yields bolster Japanese Yen outlook

"Japanese 20y bond yields have risen to 1997 highs, up 5bp to 3.495%."

"Japanese bonds tracked the U.S. move overnight, with a focus on JPY holding below 158 and the ongoing elevated oil prices."

"Japan’s current account surplus rose to a record for March, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told PM Sanae Takaichi that Japan’s economic fundamentals were strong, both of which set the course for the BoJ to hike rates in June."

"The OECD sees overnight rates of 2% at the end of 2027."

"Japanese flows and U.S. bonds will be in the spotlight with the U.S. 30y auction today."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)