Indonesia: Stable inflation outlook with oil risks – UOB

UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note Indonesia’s April inflation slowed to 2.42% year-on-year, below expectations but within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target. They highlight post-holiday normalization, contained energy inflation thanks to subsidized fuel, and steady core inflation. They see upside risks from higher global Oil prices but expect Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate at 4.75% while coordinating with government on food prices.

Inflation eases but energy risks linger

"Indonesia’s inflation eased further in Apr to 2.42% y/y, down from 3.48% in March, coming in below market expectations (2.70%) while remaining comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range of 2.5% ±1.0%."

"Overall, Apr inflation moderated post-holiday effects, with volatility contained despite global tensions from Middle East war."

"Risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly from higher energy prices, as rising Brent crude prices could lift logistics and transport costs significantly, feeding indirectly into both core and food inflation."

"The government is expected to focus on controlling logistics costs and food prices in coordination with BI through the Movement for Inflation and Food Prosperity (GPIPS)."

"Looking ahead, stable inflation provides BI with room to maintain its policy rate at 4.75%, even at the expense of a weaker rupiah (see Indonesia: Reserves fall on sustained FX intervention), in support of the government’s expansionary fiscal stance."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)