Hungary: Strong cut to put pressure on HUF – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at Commerzbank analyze Forint’s outlook ahead of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision.

MNB should act cautiously to avoid creating downside risks for the Forint

A rate cut in line with market expectations is likely to be neutral for the Forint, a continued hawkish tone in the statement might even be slightly positive. If the board decides for unchanged interest rates in a surprise move, I would expect a pronounced upward move in the Forint.

A strong cut on the other hand would put pressure on the HUF, above all if it should then turn out that inflation does not ease as quickly as expected after all. The October data, due for publication the week after next, are likely to be extremely important for the Forint, particularly in that case.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold rebounds firmly as China Treasuries-buying report smashes US yields

Gold stages a solid comeback from weekly lows, retakes $4,150 early Thursday. US Dollar declines sharply alongside Treasury yields on China’s bond-buying report. Technically, the daily RSI remains bearish and a headwind for Gold buyers.

Bitcoin falls on hot CPI: Why $80,000 support matters

Bitcoin's (BTC) most critical level to watch is near $80,000 as September's hot inflation reading pressures the crypto market, according to Glassnode. The top crypto declined within minutes of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which showed a 3.7% annual increase in headline inflation, above forecasts of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 2.6%.

China seems routing US Treasury holdings through Canada

According to a Bloomberg report, China seems to be moving United States securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, masking its role in financing US deficits.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?