Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds gains above $4,300 amid cautious markets
- Gold struggles to rally beyond $4,300 after rallying about 6.5% in the last three trading days.
- Enthusiasm about the US-Iran peace has turned to caution, with markets awaiting details of the deal.
- XAU/USD bulls are likely to face significant resistance around $4,400.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a mildly positive tone on Tuesday, holding gains after rallying about 6.5% over the last few days. The precious metal's recovery, however, has lost steam after crossing the $4,300 line and remains practically flat as the initial enthusiasm about the US-Iran peace deal faded, with investors awaiting details of the agreement and monetary policy decisions by major central banks.
US President Donald Trump said that the deal has already been signed and that the details might be released before Friday. Investors, meanwhile, await more clarity on factors such as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent global inflation soaring over the last three months, and Iran’s nuclear program, as the possibility of a re-escalation of the conflict has not been completely ruled out.
Apart from that, traders are also awaiting monetary policy decisions by some of the world’s major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The market will be eager to assess whether the peace deal has prompted policymakers to set aside plans for monetary tightening.
Technical Analysis: Gold's broader trend remains bearish
XAU/USD trades at $4,315, extending a corrective phase below a dense band of nearby resistances. Momentum indicators in the daily chart are picking up but not yet at bullish levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 43, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds in negative territory, suggesting downside pressure is still dominant despite the recent stabilization.
Gold bulls are likely to be tested around $4,400. A previous support area near $4,380 (May 27,28 lows) is likely to act now as resistance ahead of the descending trendline from January's peak, now around $4,430, and the key 200-day SMA, around $4,465. Further up, the target is the late-May highs, at the $4.590 area.
On the downside, Monday's low at the $4,260 area might provide support ahead of last week's low of $4,023. A bearish reaction below that level brings the late October 2025 level, at $3,888, into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
