Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds bullish bias near $4,400

Gold holds near $4,400, supported by a weaker US Dollar and fading expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
XAU/USD maintains a constructive technical bias on both the four-hour and one-hour charts, with prices holding above key moving averages.
A break above $4,450 could reinforce bullish momentum, while $4,365 acts as the nearest key support.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish bias around $4,400, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, geopolitical risks and tensions in energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, limiting the precious metal’s upside for now.

In the four-hour chart below, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,205.68 and the 200-period SMA at $4,142.35, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The nearby horizontal support at $4,365.00 underpins the latest consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.32 has eased out of overbought territory and now points to moderately positive, but not stretched, momentum.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent floor around $4,365.00, with deeper demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near $4,205.68 and then the 200-period SMA around $4,142.35, where the broader bullish structure would be expected to reassert if tested. On the topside, a break above the horizontal resistance at $4,450.00 would open the way for renewed gains, as the absence of closer overhead technical barriers suggests that a clear move through this cap could accelerate bullish pressure.

In the one-hour chart below, XAU/USD is also holding a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,382.90 and the 200-period SMA at $4,324.87. This positioning suggests dips are still being bought, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 keeps a mildly bullish tone without yet signaling overbought conditions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

AUD/USD keeps range near 0.6950 after Australian trade data

AUD/USD consolidates near a two-month low, trading around mid-0.6900s in the Asian session on Thursday amid a bullish US Dollar. The US PCE data tempered October Fed hike bets, though oil-driven inflation fears remain supportive of elevated US bond yields. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus shrank sharply in August to AUD495M, having limited impact on the Aussie Dollar and the pair.

USD/JPY sits at weekly top above 158.00 as bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY is sitting at the top end of its weekly range above 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Despite the softer US PCE data, oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff benefits the safe-haven US Dollar and supports the pair. Broad US Dollar strength counters hawkish BoJ expectations and Japanese intervention risks.

Gold struggles as rising US Treasury yields outweigh dovish Fed repricing

Gold treads water on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar and soaring US Treasury yields limit the upside. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,167, up 0.26% on the day, as the precious metal struggles to build on its early recovery.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP struggle to regain momentum amid returning ETF outflows

Bitcoin trades broadly between support at $82,500 and resistance at $85,000. Ethereum similarly remains under pressure, trading below $2,700 while the $2,600 level provides immediate support. At the same time, Ripple has slipped below the pivotal $1.50 level.

These 4 views on the US Dollar: The NFP could break resistance or break the rally

The US Dollar enters the September NFP release near the yearly highs, and the four most recent FXStreet analyses are split down the middle. Two see the US Dollar staying bid into the report, with an upside breakout on the table, while two argue the rally has already gone too far.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro (EUR) an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082.