Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holding its ground despite increased real interest rates is a sign of strength – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold price rapidly recouped its initial losses yesterday and climbed to over $1,930. XAU/USD is trading a few dollars lower this morning. Still, economists at Commerzbank see the yellow metal resilient amid increased real interest rates.

Gold price holding its ground

“The EU and the US are preparing further sanctions against Russia, which is apparantly making market participants more cautious.”

“The firm US dollar and higher real interest rates appear to be precluding any further rise in the gold price at present.”

“The market seems to believe that the Fed will succeed in regaining control of the current very high inflation by raising interest rates. This makes the yellow metal less attractive as an alternative investment. The fact that gold is holding its ground despite the increased real interest rates is a sign of strength.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 after soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and stays below 1.3400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, making it difficult for the British Pound gather recovery momentum. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1400 as markets focus on geopolitics

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1400 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-impact data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caps the pair's upside. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions.

Gold extends rally as Middle East concerns intensify

Gold extends gains for the fourth consecutive day, standing comfortably above $4,100, unfazed by the risk-off market amid rising tensions in Iran and higher Oil prices. The pair has rallied nearly 2.5% so far this week and is on track for its best weekly performance in more than three months.

XRP consolidates as inflows and volume climb

Ripple (XRP) retains a slightly bullish outlook on Wednesday despite logging a minor correction from the supply range near $1.15. The remittance token is down 0.5% on the day, reflecting a broader cryptocurrency market drawdown, primarily driven by persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East.

US – Fed preview: A divided hold

The first month after Kevin Warsh's debut at the FOMC's June meeting has brought mixed signals on the inflation front. On one hand, the re-escalation of the war in Iran has lifted energy prices higher again. Yet on the other hand, Warsh's hawkish comments have already lifted real rates, supported broad USD and tightened financial conditions while realized inflation surprised to the downside in June.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.