Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs above $4,050 amid risk-off sentiment

Gold price rises to near $4,070 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Traders will closely monitor the delayed US NFP report for September, which is scheduled for release later on Thursday.
Hawkish US Fed comments might cap the Gold’s upside.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Gold price XAU/USD attracts some buyers to around $4,070, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rises amid the risk-off sentiment as traders brace for the long-awaited return of US economic data. The FOMC Minutes will be the highlights later on Wednesday, ahead of the US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

US NFP reports for September and October 2025 were not released as scheduled due to a US government shutdown. The delay in employment data complicates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions regarding interest rates ahead of its December meeting. This, in turn, could boost a traditional safe-haven asset like Gold.

The US employment report for September is now expected to be released on Thursday. The US economy is projected to see 50,000 jobs added in September, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay at 4.3% during the same period. If the report comes in weaker than expected, this could exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price.

On the other hand, hawkish remarks from the Fed officials tempered expectations of a December rate cut and might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the Fed should proceed "slowly" with further rate reductions. Meanwhile, several Fed policymakers, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, voiced concerns about inflation or signaled support for holding rates steady.

Traders are currently pricing in a 46.6% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.