Gold: Near-term pressure, longer-term strength – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists have cut their Gold forecasts for the next two quarters as higher inflation expectations from supply shocks lift yields and keep the Dollar firm, with markets even pricing a potential Fed hike in late 2026. They see downside risk toward $4,000–4,200/oz if Oil surges, but materially upgrade long-term projections, targeting an average of $5,350/oz by Q2 2027.

Short-term downgrades, long-term upgrades

"Our gold price projections for the next two quarters have been downgraded materially, as higher inflation expectations associated with the negative supply shocks have pushed yields across the curve higher, kept the USD firm, and prompted markets to begin pricing in a Fed hike in late 2026."

"If crude oil prices surge from current sub-$100/b levels, gold may trade down to support in the $4,000–4,200/oz range."

"In sharp contrast to our short-term view, our long-term gold projections have been lifted materially higher, as we expect inflation pressures to ease after the Iran war concludes, which will allow interest rates to move lower, the dollar to weaken, and investors to once again talk about the debasement trade."

"Fear of financial repression, elevated geopolitical risks, and firmer investor and central bank buying could see gold trade above our Q2 2027 average of $5,350/oz."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)