Gold: Near-term downside before late-2026 recovery – TD Securities

TD Securities commodity strategists see Gold and Silver facing further correction as the Middle East war sustains inflation expectations and delays Fed easing. Elevated opportunity costs and reduced regional capital are near-term headwinds. However, once the conflict ends and the Dollar weakens, they project Gold returning above $5,000 in late 2026.

War delays cuts, later upside potential

"While both gold and silver look good for later in the year, after the war stops, oil prices stabilize, and the market's pricing for Fed rate cuts returns. However, a continued correction is in the cards first as the war goes continues."

"A continuation of the Middle East conflict will keep lifting inflation expectations along with higher energy, fertilizer, and chemical prices, making it difficult for the Fed to cut soon. This will keep the opportunity costs to holding precious metals elevated."

"The lack of Middle East capital in the gold market is also a downside catalyst. Once the war ends, energy price shocks normalize, rates migrate lower and the dollar weakens, gold is likely to return above $5,000 in the latter part of 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)