Gold: Constructive longer‑term outlook despite volatility – ING

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that Gold is edging higher and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by diplomatic optimism on Iran, central‑bank demand and rising inflation expectations. They stress that near‑term price action remains headline‑driven and volatile, but describe a constructive longer‑term outlook anchored in sustained official sector buying and expectations that real rates will eventually become less restrictive.

Near‑term swings, longer‑term support intact

"Gold has edged higher, on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and up nearly 2% at the time of writing. Prices were supported by diplomatic optimism around Iran, continued central-bank demand and rising inflation expectations, although price action remains highly headline‑driven."

"Geopolitical risks are still unresolved, and the ceasefire appears fragile, keeping near‑term volatility elevated. Since the conflict began, gold has fallen around 10%, underscoring how macro headwinds, notably higher real yields and a firmer US dollar have outweighed safe‑haven demand."

"Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain volatile in the near term, but the longer‑term outlook remains constructive, supported by sustained central bank buying, ongoing reserve diversification and the likelihood that real rates will not remain restrictive indefinitely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)