GBP/USD remains below 1.3600 due to risk-off mood, UK fiscal concerns

GBP/USD depreciates as the US Dollar gains ground amid increased risk sentiment.
President Trump is preparing to announce a 50% tariff on imported copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports.
The UK Office for Budget Responsibility warned that public finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD extends its losing streak, trading around 1.3580 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump told reporters at a White House cabinet meeting to impose a 50% tariff on Copper imports but he did not say when the tariff would take effect, per Reuters.

President Trump expressed his intention to strengthen domestic Copper production and reduce dependence on foreign supplies, as the US currently imports nearly half of its metal, primarily from Chile. The new tariff aligns red metal with the existing 50% duties on steel and aluminum, intensifying trade tensions and adding to volatility in the metals market.

Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States has already received around $100 billion in tariff revenue this year and could see that total surge to $300 billion by the end of 2025, driven by US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade measures.

The GBP/USD pair faces challenges as the Pound Sterling (GBP) loses ground due to concerns over the fiscal outlook in the United Kingdom (UK). The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that public finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory in the United Kingdom, given the growing cost of state pensions and the mounting climate emergency.

Richard Hughes, who chairs the budget watchdog, highlighted that public debt could surpass 270% of GDP by the early 2070s, driven by the financial strain of an aging population and rising healthcare and pension costs. Heightened global tensions and growing demands for higher defense spending are further contributing to long-term fiscal uncertainty.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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