GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles near 1.3500 amid modest USD uptick; bears seem hesitant
- GBP/USD remains depressed for the second straight day as USD preserves upbeat NFP-led gains.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions further benefit the safe-haven USD and exert pressure on spot prices.
- The mixed technical setup warrants caution for aggressive traders before placing directional bets.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction and trades around the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. Moreover, spot prices hold above Friday's swing low, warranting some caution for bearish traders.
The US Dollar (USD) draws support from rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. Adding to this, escalating US-Iran confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and weigh on the GBP/USD pair. USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for US inflation figures, due later this week, for more cues about the Fed's policy path.
Traders will further confront the release of the monthly UK GDP report on Friday for a fresh impetus. In the meantime, relatively thin trading volumes due to the Labor Day holiday in the US hold back traders from placing aggressive bets and might continue to lend support to the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a six-month peak, touched in August.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3460 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August rise. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.7 hovers around neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains slightly negative. This hints that the upside momentum is modest even as the GBP/USD pair consolidates above these underlying supports.
On the downside, initial support emerges in the 1.3470–1.3460 band defined by the 38.2% retracement and the 50-day SMA, with further cushions at the 50.0% retracement near 1.3407 and deeper Fibonacci levels at 1.3345, 1.3255 and 1.3141. On the topside, the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3548 is the first resistance to clear, ahead of the cycle high anchor around 1.3673, a break of which would reopen a stronger bullish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.12% | -0.00% | 0.11% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.25% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
