GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds modest upside while staying anchored above 100-day EMA support

GBP/USD trades with mild gains near 1.3550 in Wednesday’s early European session.
The positive outlook of the pair remains intact above the key 100-day EMA.
The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.3630; the initial support level is located at 1.3540.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair trades on a positive note around 1.3550 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited, as UK political turmoil and ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on the British Pound (GBP) against the Greenback.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing rising pressure to set a date for his departure after elections across much of the country resulted in massive losses for his ruling Labour Party. While Starmer stated he will not resign, the resulting political "noise" and rising UK gilt yields have created localized pressure on the GBP.

Traders will closely watch the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. Markets expect the US PPI inflation to rise to 4.9% YoY in April from 4.0% in March. The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show a rise of 4.3% YoY in April versus 3.8% prior. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could boost the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a mild bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 100-day SMA, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers close to the mid-50s, hinting at steady rather than overstretched upside momentum while price grinds higher within the Bollinger envelope.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band near 1.3630, where recent rallies could stall if buyers fail to extend the breakout. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.3540, followed by the 100-day SMA at roughly 1.3483; a deeper pullback would then look to the lower Bollinger band near 1.3458 as a stronger floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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