GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias below mid-215.00s/weekly top ahead of UK CPI

GBP/JPY remains on the front foot as bulls now await UK inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
Economic risks stemming from Middle East tensions weigh on the JPY and support the cross.
BoE rate hike bets further act as a tailwind for the GBP and spot prices amid a bullish setup.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross trades with a positive bias for the third straight day and touches a fresh weekly top, around the 215.35-215.40 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices remain well within striking distance of the highest level since July 2008 touched last week, as bulls now await the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

The crucial UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be looked upon for reaffirm expectations for at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) by the end of 2026, which should inspire the British Pound (GBP) bulls. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues to be undermined by economic concerns stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming April meeting. The supporting factors, in turn, suggest that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside.

The recent solid rebound from the vicinity of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support and a subsequent breakout through the 213.10-213.15 horizontal barrier suggest that the broader uptrend stays intact. Adding to this, momentum indicators remain constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in bullish territory around 64, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds positive ground. This hints that buying pressure is dominant despite recent consolidation below multi-year highs, and even if upside follow-through has moderated.

The lack of nearby resistance beyond the 216.00 mark implies that any fresh break higher could see the GBP/JPY cross probing uncharted territory. Moreover, momentum gauges suggest that pullbacks are more likely to be corrective than trend-changing while the market holds above the 210.60 area, or the 100-day EMA. A deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest in the context of the prevailing uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/JPY daily chart

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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