Non farm payroll forecast: October job growth to keep December hike in play – Danske Bank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that their Our models suggest job growth in October of 170,000 – below the mid-year pace but still enough to put additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Key Quotes

“We estimate that the manufacturing sector shed 11,000 jobs in September, as the sector remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and the employment index in the ISM manufacturing survey dipped to a six-year low in October. We look for government employment to increase by 10,000 and construction employment to pick up pace again and add 30,000 jobs.”

“In terms of the unemployment rate, we estimate the rate stayed unchanged at 5.1% in October but forecast it will head below 5% by year-end.”

“The Q3 15 employment cost index showed a rebound in wage growth, which put the pace of wage gains in line with that of last year. So far, wage growth is not showing any clear signs of acceleration despite the substantial decline in labour market slack.”

“The same is true for the employment reports’ measure of wages, the average hourly earnings index. A pick-up in wage inflation is important as it would help to reassure the doves of the FOMC that the labour market is indeed running tight.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Above 0.6300 on Good Friday holiday with eyes on China CPI

AUD/USD remains above 0.6300, despite stepping back from the monthly high of 0.6363 to currently around 0.6330, at the start of Friday’s Asian session. Markets in Australia/US are closed for Good Friday, Chinese markets are up with March month inflation data on the cards.

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY: The greenback ticks down, trades above 108.00 figure

USD/JPY consolidates gains above the 108.00 figure. The level to beat for buyers is the 109.50 resistance. USD/JPY bull trend stays intact as the spot trades above the 108.00 handle and the 50/200 SMAs on the four chart.

USD/JPY News

Why stocks are recovering and where next

The S&P 500 index has recovered around half the losses it suffered due to the coronavirus pandemic. Is bad news priced in? How much credit does the Federal Reserve deserve? Where next for equities?

Read more

Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

Gold: Multiple upside barriers before crossing $1,700

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves.

Gold News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures