Non farm payroll forecast: October job growth to keep December hike in play – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that their Our models suggest job growth in October of 170,000 – below the mid-year pace but still enough to put additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Key Quotes

“We estimate that the manufacturing sector shed 11,000 jobs in September, as the sector remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and the employment index in the ISM manufacturing survey dipped to a six-year low in October. We look for government employment to increase by 10,000 and construction employment to pick up pace again and add 30,000 jobs.”

“In terms of the unemployment rate, we estimate the rate stayed unchanged at 5.1% in October but forecast it will head below 5% by year-end.”

“The Q3 15 employment cost index showed a rebound in wage growth, which put the pace of wage gains in line with that of last year. So far, wage growth is not showing any clear signs of acceleration despite the substantial decline in labour market slack.”

“The same is true for the employment reports’ measure of wages, the average hourly earnings index. A pick-up in wage inflation is important as it would help to reassure the doves of the FOMC that the labour market is indeed running tight.”