Euro holds gains near seven-week highs as economic sentiment improves

EUR/USD holds gains at 1.1560, consolidating near seven-week highs.
Eurozone Sentix Investors Sentiment Index rose to a six-month high in August.
The US Dollar remains depressed as Fed tightening hopes ebb.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against a softer US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the 1.1560 area at the time of writing, consolidating gains a few pips below seven-week highs at 1.1773. Fading hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in September are hurting the Greenback, while, in Europe, bright investors' confidence figures have provided additional support to the Euro.

Data released by the Sentix research institute on Monday revealed that investors' confidence in the Eurozone economy improved sharply in August, reaching positive levels, with a 0.9 reading, for the first time since February. These numbers confirm a steady recovery, from -.3.1 in July and -13.4 in June.

The greatest improvement has been seen at the current economic conditions sub-Index, which rose by 6.8 points, while the economic expectations improved by a more moderate 1.0. The expectations about the German economy rose by 2.5 points to 6.0, also the highest level since February, while the Global Aggregate rose by 1.4 points, to 14.7, suggesting that economic recovery expectations are broad-based.

The Euro is drawing some support from a weaker US Dollar, as the negative surprise posted by the US Nonfarm Payrolls data has dampened hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes further. This is offsetting concerns about the economic consequences of higher Oil prices for now, as the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain with sea traffic through the key waterway practically blocked.

US CPI data will be the highlight of the week

The US calendar is thin on Monday, and the focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July, due next Wednesday, for a better assessment of the Fed's near-term rate path. The market consensus points to a mild slowdown of consumer prices to a 3.4% year-on-year rate, from 3.5% in June. The Core CPI is also expected to have eased, to a 2.5% yearly growth, from 2.6% in the previous month.

Analysts at ING see the EUR/USD "firmly dominated by the USD side of the equation,” with upcoming US inflation data set to play a pivotal role. In their view, “a softer US CPI print would increase the chances of a break above 1.160 already this week,” with the “next important resistance beyond that” identified as “the 200-day moving average at 1.1630.”

Economic Indicator

Sentix Investor Confidence

With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually, a higher reading is seen as positive for the Eurozone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.

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