EUR/USD Price Forecast: Reflects strength ahead of ECB’s policy decision

EUR/USD trades higher to near 1.1430 ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy announcement.
The ECB is expected to keep policy rates steady.
Investors seek fresh cues regarding Eurozone second-round inflation risks.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) is up 0.15% at around 1.1430 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair rises as the major currency outperforms its peers ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement at 12:15 GMT.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.15%	-0.09%	-0.05%	-0.15%	-0.23%	-0.04%	-0.13%
EUR	0.15%		0.08%	0.11%	0.00%	-0.08%	0.13%	0.03%
GBP	0.09%	-0.08%		0.04%	-0.09%	-0.16%	0.05%	-0.05%
JPY	0.05%	-0.11%	-0.04%		-0.11%	-0.19%	-0.01%	-0.09%
CAD	0.15%	0.00%	0.09%	0.11%		-0.09%	0.11%	0.01%
AUD	0.23%	0.08%	0.16%	0.19%	0.09%		0.21%	0.12%
NZD	0.04%	-0.13%	-0.05%	0.00%	-0.11%	-0.21%		-0.10%
CHF	0.13%	-0.03%	0.05%	0.09%	-0.01%	-0.12%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The ECB is expected to leave policy rates steady after a 25-basis point (bp) hike in the June policy meeting. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde in the press conference regarding the monetary policy and the inflation outlook.

According to a Reuters report, traders price in two more interest rate hikes from the ECB this year. Market participants would like to know whether fears of second-round effects of inflation in the Eurozone economy are real.

ECB policymaker and Governor of Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, said in the mid of the month that the central bank’s goal is to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored and limit indirect and second-round effects of shocks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faces marginal selling pressure despite surging oil prices amid Middle East energy supply risks.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1430 at press time. The major currency pair has rebounded to near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1433, signaling a neutral near-term bias. The pair trades in a Bearish Flag chart pattern, which is a trend-following pattern that continues a downside trend after a brief pause.

The Relative Strength Index (14) stays inside the 40.00-60.00zone, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and reinforcing the idea that rallies are vulnerable while price holds beneath the nearby moving average and trend-line resistance.

On the topside, the psychological level of 1.500 is the immediate resistance, with a more notable barrier at the upper line of the rising channel near 1.1521. On the downside, initial support is seen at the channel’s lower boundary around 1.1402; a clear break beneath this floor would open the way for a deeper slide towards the June 24 low at 1.1384.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

ECB Rate On Deposit Facility

One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.

GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite Middle East turmoil

The GBP/USD pair rebounds to near 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid cooler-than-expected UK inflation data and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Traders will take more cues from the UK Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday.

EUR/USD advances ahead of ECB policy decision

EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the Euro finds solid support ahead of the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision.

Gold extends range play above $4,100 as inflation fears lift Fed hike bets and cap gains

Gold consolidates above the $4,100 round figure through the Asian session, and seems to have stalled its modest pullback from an over two-week high touched the previous day. Crude oil prices climb to a fresh high since June 11 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Fed interest rate hike expectations.

Hyperliquid, Robinhood could lead crypto’s next bull market as DeFi and TradFi converge

The next crypto bull market could be driven by the growing convergence between blockchain-based financial infrastructure and traditional finance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a report published late Tuesday, Hougan argued that crypto may be showing early signs of a market bottom, with Bitcoin gaining 9% since July 1 even as the NASDAQ 100 declined 6%.

Ripple and Stellar await direction amid cautious sentiment

Ripple and Stellar trade cautiously as both tokens hover around key technical levels. XRP is testing resistance at its 50-day EMA, while XLM continues to consolidate around the $0.187 support zone. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives data with a slight bearish tilt suggests traders remain cautious, keeping the next directional move uncertain.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.