EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro losses ground against the yen and drops below 146.50

The EUR/JPY tumbled from weekly highs around 147.00, for fundamental reasons, like the Eurozone (EU) inflation report, with September’s CPI around 9.9% YoY, less than estimates but elevated. Also, expectations for further central bank tightening spurred concerns of a global recession as risk-perceived assets edged lower. Therefore, safe-haven peers, like the Japanese yen (JPY), appreciated against the Euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 146.44, almost flat, as the Asian session begins.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast

From a technical perspective, the EUR/JPY tested the YTD highs of 147.25 on Wednesday, though failure to hold the fort around the 147.00 figure exacerbated a drop towards the October 18 daily lows at 145.81. EUR/JPY traders should be aware that a bearish-harami candle chart pattern surfaced at the daily chart, warring downward action. Nevertheless, a break below October’s 18 daily low at 145.81 is needed to pave the way for further losses.

If that scenario plays out, the EUR/JPY first support would be the September 12 high-turned-support at 145.63. A breach of the latter will expose the 145.00 figure, followed by the October 5 swing high/support around 144.08.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Near term, the EUR/JPY hourly chart illustrates the cross as neutral biased, with prices sliding below the 20 and 50-Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the former crossing below the latter, opening the door for further losses. Notably, a symmetrical triangle on a downtrend surfaced, meaning that EUR/JPY risks are skewed to the downside.

Hence, the EUR/JPY first support would be October’s 19 daily low at 146.07. Break below will expose the S1 daily pivot point at 145.90, followed by the 100-EMA at 145.70, ahead of the S2 daily pivot level at 145.40.

EUR/JPY Hourly Chart