EUR/HUF to rise to the 390.00 level in coming weeks if jitters surrounding EU banks continue – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) will hold a rate setting meeting today. No change in base rate from the existing 13% is anticipated. Economists at Commerzbank believe that the EUR/HUF pair could reach the 390 mark in the coming weeks.

Hungary's MNB on hold in volatile environment

“We do not anticipate any cut to this rate today.”

“While there could have been some improvement in Hungarian core inflation dynamics in recent months, Hungary’s inflation outlook is still the most worrisome amongst the CE3. Whichever definition of policy rate we want to use, Hungary’s real interest rate works out to deeply negative. This keeps the exchange rate vulnerable.”

“At this very time, the Forint appears relatively overvalued given the broader risk situation – this probably owes to the strong Euro, but we expect EUR/HUF to rise to the 390.00 level in coming weeks if current market jitters surrounding European banks were to continue.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold rebounds to $4,150 as China bond-buying reports smash US yields

Gold attracts strong buying and retests $4,150 during the Asian session on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low. Retreating US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched in reaction to Wednesday’s hot US CPI report, and boost the non-yielding bullion. Reports that China is quietly buying US Treasuries through Canada are smashing US Treasury bond yields and the USD.

Bitcoin falls on hot CPI: Why $80,000 support matters

Bitcoin's (BTC) most critical level to watch is near $80,000 as September's hot inflation reading pressures the crypto market, according to Glassnode. The top crypto declined within minutes of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which showed a 3.7% annual increase in headline inflation, above forecasts of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 2.6%.

China seems routing US Treasury holdings through Canada

According to a Bloomberg report, China seems to be moving United States securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, masking its role in financing US deficits.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?