EUR/GBP holds ground near 0.8750 ahead of Germany’s IFO Business Survey

EUR/GBP holds steady as both currencies rise after the US Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs without Congressional approval.
The EU trade chief said the European Union will suspend US trade deal ratification pending policy clarity.
The Pound Sterling gains ground following recent stronger-than-expected UK data.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/GBP recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 0.8740 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders will monitor Germany’s IFO - Business Climate survey for February due later in the day.

The EUR/GBP pair remains largely unchanged as both the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) after the US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were unlawful without Congressional approval.

Following that, Trump signaled plans to introduce a new 15% global tariff under alternative trade laws, extending uncertainty around US trade policy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other White House officials indicated that Washington would rely on different legal grounds to preserve as many of Trump’s existing tariffs as possible.

Meanwhile, the European Parliament’s trade chief said the European Union (EU) would propose suspending the ratification of its trade agreement with the US until it receives clearer guidance from the administration on its trade strategy, Bloomberg reported.

Stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) data have provided additional support to the British Pound. Retail Sales surged by 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) in January, comfortably beating expectations of 2.8%. Meanwhile, business activity gained momentum, with the February S&P Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showing expansion across both the services and manufacturing sectors.

However, softer labor market figures have strengthened the case for additional policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE), as the unemployment rate rose in Q4 2025. Money markets are pricing in a strong likelihood, between 75% and 80%, that the Bank of England (BoE) will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at its March policy meeting.

Economic Indicator

IFO – Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD remains under pressure; looks at 1.1500 on firm US ISM

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and trades in the low 1.1500s on the back of the marginal improvement in the US Dollar, all in the wake of solid US ISM Manufacturing data on Wednesday. The Greenback, in the meantime, remains far from a sustainable rebound in the current context of cooling geopolitical tensions.

Gold remains supported near $4,000

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

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