EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 on shaky markets

The Euro stands above 0.8700 against the Pound but is on track for a moderate weekly decline.
The pair trades in range amid a frail market sentiment as Iran's ceasefire staggers.
German inflation data endorses the view of an upcoming ECB rate hike.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) holds moderate gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday. The pair edges up above 0.8700 at the European session’s opening times, yet on track to a minor weekly decline, with both currencies trimming gains against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) as Iran’s ceasefire staggers.

Tehran has threatened to pull out of the peace process after massive attacks from Israel killed more than 300 people in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has complained about Iran’s poor handling of the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, warning on Truth Social that "That is not the agreement we have".

Data released by the Hormuz Trail Monitor shows that only seven vessels have crossed the critical waterway in the last 24 hours. This is about a 5% of the 140 ships that would sail through the strait in an average day before the war, while Iranian authorities are reportedly charging fees for Oil tankers.

German Inflationary pressures soar in March

In the economic docket, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed preliminary figures showing that inflation accelerated 1.2% in March and 2.8% year on year, from 0.4% and 2.0% respectively, boosted by higher energy prices amid the war in the Middle East.

These figures fuel market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to hike rates in the coming months, and maybe as soon as in April. The Bank of England (BoE), on the contrary, is taking a “wait and see " stance and is not expected to tighten its monetary policy anytime soon. This is providing some competitive advantage to the Euro.

(This story was corrected on April 10 at 07;50 GMT to say that the German year-on-year HICP accelerated to 2.8% in March from 2.0% in February, instead of the 2.7% and 1.9% respective figures previously reported.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation

We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.