Canadian Dollar remains subdued amid lower oil prices

USD/CAD holds firm as commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens amid lower oil prices.
WTI struggles after Bloomberg reports Donald Trump plans to escort ships via the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran proposed a one-month deadline for talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CAD inches higher for the second successive day, trading around 1.3590 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.50 per barrel at the time of writing.

Crude oil prices struggled following a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicating that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

However, Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.

The upside in USD/CAD may remain limited as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid easing safe-haven demand, with traders assessing progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Mediation efforts to end the conflict have continued as the war in Iran enters its third month. Donald Trump hinted that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.

According to Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran has proposed setting a one-month deadline for talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending both the US naval blockade and the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD holds above 0.6900 ahead of China’s trade data

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery move as prolonged Middle East uncertainty supports the safe-haven US Dollar. Moreover, Fed hike bets provide a tailwind for the buck, while expectations of a cautious, on-hold RBA stance cap the Aussie. Spot prices, however, hold above 0.6900 as traders look to China’s trade data and the US CPI report for a fresh impetus.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 on weak Japanese data; focus shifts to US CPI

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday as a fall in Japan’s Household Spending undermines the Japanese Yen. Moreover, Fed hike bets and Middle East uncertainty support the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Gold retreats from three-week top; $4,150 resistance holds ahead of US CPI

Gold drifts lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day’s strong gains to a near three-week high, around the $4,150 hurdle, as mixed signals about US-Iran peace talks support the safe-haven US Dollar. Traders now look to the crucial US CPI report for more cues about the Fed’s policy path, which would drive the buck and influence the non-yielding bullion.

NYSE taps Avalanche for clearing and settlement of tokenized securities

Avalanche defied the crypto market drawdown on Monday, up 4% after announcing it will provide the core ledger technology for clearing in the New York Stock Exchange's upcoming tokenized securities trading platform.

US CPI preview: Moderation on the horizon, but underlying pressures linger

The US Consumer Price Index for October will be released on Tuesday, November 10, at a time when financial markets are receiving rather different signals from inflation, employment and credit conditions. September's inflation report showed headline consumer prices rising by 0.6% month over month, while core inflation increased by 0.3%.

Gold reclaimed $4,100. Tuesday’s CPI test decides if it holds

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, reclaiming the $4,100 psychological level as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from its recent highs. The precious metal recovers from Friday's losses, although investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could determine the next direction for Bullion.