Canada: Modest February rebound expected labour market – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s February Labour Force Survey to show a 10K employment gain after January’s decline, but projects the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% as participation ticks up to 65.2%. They also forecast a narrower merchandise trade deficit on stronger Gold‑linked exports and weaker imports, alongside a sharp 3.3% monthly drop in manufacturing sales.

Jobs seen up but jobless rate higher

"In Canada, the main event will be the release of the February Labour Force Survey. After a decline last month, we expect employment to have increased again, with an expected gain of 10K."

"Despite this progression, the unemployment rate may have risen by two-tenths of a point to 6.7%. This is because, after falling by no less than four-tenths of a point in the first month of the year, the participation rate may have risen again, from 65.0% to 65.2%."

"The week will also feature the publication of the January merchandise trade balance. The increase in the price of certain raw materials during the month, notably gold, should have resulted in a further increase in exports."

"Combined with a decline in imports, this could lead to a reduction in the trade deficit to C$0.25 billion. In other news, manufacturing sales may have contracted 3.3% m/m in January, on sharp decreases in the transportation equipment and machinery subsectors."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)